How it works

What you're doing, how you're scored, and why the credential holds up.

The Presage turns your daily judgment into a permanent, verifiable track record. Here's the whole system — skim it in 90 seconds, or read it fully in about four minutes.

The daily loop

Every morning, a set of questions about real-world events — markets, world affairs, tech, culture, sports — goes live. Your day runs in four steps:

1
Forecast, privately
You call each question by choosing how likely you think it is — before you see the crowd or the AI. Your forecast locks in first. That's what keeps it an honest test of your judgment.
2
Unlock the reveal
Once you've predicted, the reveal opens: the crowd's consensus, the AI's estimate, and how other forecasters reasoned.
3
The event happens
When the real outcome is known, the question resolves against fixed criteria set in advance.
4
You find out how you did
Your forecast is scored, your rating moves, and it becomes a permanent part of your record.

How you forecast

Instead of a vague guess, you pick one of four confidence levels — a direction and a strength:

10%

Very Unlikely

leans no

30%

Unlikely

leans no

70%

Likely

leans yes

90%

Very Likely

leans yes

Why there's no 50%

Forecasting is about taking a side. “50%” is just another way of saying “I don't know” — so we don't offer it. Committing to a direction and a strength is what turns a hunch into a real, measurable test of judgment.

How scoring works

Good forecasting isn't just being right — it's being right and appropriately confident. Being confidently right scores best. Being confidently wrong is penalized most. Playing it cautious lands in between.

We measure this with the Brier score — the standard, respected way to measure forecasting accuracy, the same method used in serious forecasting research. The math is simple in spirit: it measures the gap between your forecast and what actually happened, so smaller is better.

Worked example

You forecast Very Likely (90%) that the Fed holds rates.

The Fed holds

Confidently right

You committed and nailed it.

Rating ↑ strongly

The Fed cuts

Confidently wrong

You committed the wrong way.

Rating ↓ strongly

You'd hedged at 70%

Right, but cautious

Correct — yet you hedged.

Rating ↑ a little

The confident, correct call gains the most; the same confidence on the wrong side loses the most; hedging trims both the upside and the sting.

Only professional-lane questions — world, markets, tech, serious culture — count toward your rating. Recreational questions (sports, lighter culture) are just for fun and never touch your credential.

Your Presage Rating

Your Presage Rating is your headline number — an ELO-style rating (like chess) that rises and falls with the quality of your forecasts over time. Everyone starts at the same baseline of 1000 and earns their way up.

Each resolved professional question nudges it: a confident correct call moves it up meaningfully, a confident wrong call moves it down, and hedged calls move it less.

Verification tiers

You also earn a tier based on how many forecasts you've made — not how good they are — because a credential needs a track record to be trustworthy.

Provisional

under 100 forecasts

Verified

100+ forecasts

Expert

500+ forecasts

Elite

2000+ forecasts

By domain

Presage also tracks your accuracy by domain — Macro, Geopolitics, Elections, Crypto and more — so you can see, and prove, exactly where your judgment is sharpest.

Every forecast is timestamped before the event, scored by fixed math, and permanent — which is why the rating is a credential that can't be faked.

Points vs. rating

Two numbers, two different jobs:

Signal Score

A running tally

Points accumulate as you participate and make good calls. It's the fun, cumulative number — it only ever grows and celebrates activity.

Presage Rating

The measure of skill

The serious, ELO-style number that goes up or down with the quality of your judgment. Points celebrate activity; the rating proves judgment.

Why you can trust it

Forecasts lock before you see the crowd or the AI — there's nothing to copy.

Every call is timestamped and permanent — the record can't be quietly edited.

Scoring uses fixed, transparent math — identical for everyone.

Points have no monetary value. This is a measure of judgment — not a betting or trading product.

The Presage is a research and education platform. It is not investment, legal, or financial advice.

Ready to prove your judgment?

Start forecasting free

Measured, not asserted. That's the whole idea.