Terms of Service

By accessing or using the Service — including by creating an account, signing in, or making a forecast — you agree to be bound by these Terms and our Privacy Policy. If you do not agree, do not use the Service. If you use the Service on behalf of an organization, you represent that you are authorized to accept these Terms for it.

The Presage is a daily, global forecasting platform for research and educational purposes. Each day we publish questions about real-world events. You forecast each question by choosing one of four confidence levels — Very Unlikely (10%), Unlikely (30%), Likely (70%), or Very Likely (90%) — before seeing the crowd or AI estimate. Over time you build a Presage Rating, a points-based measure of your forecasting calibration.

The Service is points-only. It is not a game of chance played for money, a betting or gambling service, a prediction market with financial stakes, a brokerage, or an exchange.

You must be at least 18 years old (or the age of majority in your jurisdiction, if higher) to use the Service. You may hold one account per person. By using the Service you represent that you meet these requirements and that your use does not violate any law that applies to you.

You agree to provide accurate information, to keep your sign-in credentials secure, and to notify us promptly of any unauthorized use. You are responsible for all activity that occurs under your account. We are not liable for loss arising from unauthorized use you could have prevented.

Points, your Signal Score, and your Presage Rating are virtual, have no monetary value, are not currency or e-money, are not redeemable or exchangeable for cash or anything of value, are not transferable, and are not a financial instrument, security, or prize.

No real money is wagered, won, or paid out. The Service is not gambling or betting; it is designed to operate as a skill-based online social game, not an online money game. We may adjust, recalculate, reset, or remove points and ratings — for example when a question is voided, when we correct an error, or in response to abuse.

Everything on the Service — including questions, AI probabilities, crowd consensus, other users’ reasoning, and Presage Ratings — is for research and educational purposes only.

Nothing on the Service is investment, financial, legal, tax, or trading advice, or a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or product. We are not a broker-dealer, investment adviser, or financial institution. You are solely responsible for any decision you make, and you should consult a qualified professional before acting on any information.

AI probabilities and rationales on the Service are machine-generated estimates. They can be wrong and are provided for education and comparison only — not as fact or advice. See our Disclaimer.

Each question includes resolution criteria and, where applicable, named source(s). We resolve questions by reference to those criteria and sources, using our reasonable discretion. Resolutions are final.

We may void or annul a question that cannot be resolved cleanly — for example where the outcome is ambiguous, a source becomes unavailable or is disputed, the question was drafted in error, or events make it unresolvable. Voided questions do not count toward scoring, and affected points and ratings are adjusted accordingly. We are not liable for resolution decisions, source errors or changes, or the timing of resolution.

The Service is currently free to use. We may introduce paid subscriptions in the future. If we do, the price, features, and billing terms of a plan will be shown to you before you are charged, and you will have the opportunity to review and agree to them.

Making forecasts and seeing the full reveal will remain free. Your founding free period ends without any automatic charge — you are only billed after you actively choose a plan. Once subscribed, plans renew automatically until cancelled and you can cancel anytime. See our Refund Policy.

Where paid plans exist: subscriptions renew automatically on the stated cadence until cancelled; you may cancel at any time and will retain access through the end of the paid period; and any free, founding-member, or promotional period may end or change. We may change prices and features with reasonable prior notice. Except where required by applicable law or expressly stated, fees are non-refundable. You are responsible for applicable taxes.

We may offer a referral program. When you invite someone with your personal referral link and they create an account and make their 20th forecast, both you and they receive one additional free month of access, added to your free period. You can earn up to 10 free months this way.

Free-period credits have no cash value, are not redeemable or transferable, and only extend the date until which your access is free. We may change, limit, or withdraw the referral program at any time, and we may withhold or reverse credits obtained through self-referral, fake or duplicate accounts, or other abuse.

“User content” means anything you submit, such as your takes and replies in a question’s discussion. You retain ownership of your user content. You grant us a worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free, sublicensable license to host, store, reproduce, display, and distribute it in connection with operating, improving, and promoting the Service — including showing your takes to other users (after they have forecast) and displaying your username and record on public profiles and leaderboards.

You are responsible for your user content and represent that you have the rights to submit it. You must not submit content that is unlawful, infringing, defamatory, harassing, hateful, deceptive, privacy-violating, or spam. We may remove content and suspend or terminate accounts at our discretion.

Your handle, Presage Rating, rank, and resolved calls may be shown publicly — on your profile, the rankings, and share cards — unless you set your profile to private in your account. Share cards you create for a resolved call are public by design. We never show your email, real name, or Google profile data.

You agree not to:

• use bots, automation, or scraping, or access the Service other than through the interfaces we provide;
• submit forecasts generated by bots, scripts, or AI, or let anyone but you operate your account — each account belongs to one human;
• attempt to view crowd or AI data for a question before submitting your own forecast, or otherwise circumvent our anti-herding design;
• manipulate, inflate, or distort scores, ratings, or leaderboards, or coordinate with others to do so;
• create multiple or duplicate accounts, or abuse referrals or promotions;
• interfere with or bypass security features (including bot protection and rate limits), or probe or reverse-engineer the Service; or
• use the Service for any unlawful purpose.

We may suspend or terminate accounts that violate this section.

The Service, its software, design, and the content we create, along with the “The Presage” and “Presage Rating” names and marks and the Sage mascot, are owned by us or our licensors and are protected by intellectual-property laws. We grant you a limited, personal, non-transferable, revocable license to use the Service in accordance with these Terms. You may not copy, modify, distribute, sell, or create derivative works from any part of the Service without our prior written permission.

Questions may reference public figures, companies, governments, markets, or events. Those parties are not affiliated with, and do not sponsor or endorse, The Presage. Such references exist only to identify real-world events for forecasting.

The Service is provided “AS IS” and “AS AVAILABLE” without warranties of any kind, whether express, implied, or statutory, including implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, and accuracy. We do not warrant that questions, AI probabilities, crowd data, resolutions, or the Service itself will be accurate, complete, reliable, current, uninterrupted, secure, or error-free. You use the Service at your own risk.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, in no event will we or our affiliates, officers, employees, or agents be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential, exemplary, or punitive damages, or for lost profits, revenues, data, or goodwill, arising out of or relating to your use of (or inability to use) the Service, any forecast or content, or any decision you make in reliance on the Service. Our total aggregate liability for all claims relating to the Service will not exceed the greater of (a) the amounts you paid us in the twelve months before the event giving rise to the claim, or (b) USD 100 (or its INR equivalent). Some jurisdictions do not allow certain limitations, so some of these may not apply to you; in that case our liability is limited to the greatest extent permitted.

You agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless The Presage and its affiliates from and against any claims, liabilities, damages, losses, and expenses (including reasonable legal fees) arising out of or related to your use of the Service, your user content, or your violation of these Terms, any law, or any third-party right.

We may add, change, suspend, or discontinue features of the Service at any time. We may also update these Terms; when we make material changes we will update the “last updated” date and, where appropriate, notify you (for example by email or an in-app notice). Your continued use of the Service after changes take effect constitutes acceptance of the updated Terms.

You may stop using the Service and delete your account at any time. We may suspend or terminate your access at our discretion, including for violations of these Terms, legal reasons, or risks to the Service or other users. Upon termination your right to use the Service ends; sections that by their nature should survive (including those on no monetary value, disclaimers, limitation of liability, intellectual property, indemnification, and governing law) will survive.

These Terms are governed by the laws of India, without regard to its conflict-of-laws rules. Subject to any mandatory consumer-protection rights available to you in your country of residence, you agree that disputes arising out of or relating to these Terms or the Service will be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the competent courts located in India.

Note (pending legal review): the governing-law venue, whether disputes are handled by courts or binding arbitration (and its seat and rules), and how these interact with consumer-protection laws for our global user base are placeholders to be confirmed with counsel before public launch.

Questions about these Terms? Contact us at hello@thepresage.co. See also our Disclaimer, Refund Policy, and Contact page.